【蓝厅论坛】美国前财政部长保尔森：重启中美合作应该这样做（中英文对照）
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以下是美国前财政部长亨利·保尔森发言的主要内容中英文对照版，与读者们分享。
保尔森强调，美中关系仍然是世界上最重要的双边关系。但美中两国将长期陷入战略竞争，在技术、经济、金融、军事和意识形态等各个领域展开全面竞争，而且两国还将争夺在第三国的影响力，包括主要的经合组织经济体及“全球南方”的新兴经济体。这构成了全球地缘政治以及国际经济的新背景。我们迫切需要一个新的框架来反映中国、美国和世界发生的重大变化。对此，保尔森为这场新兴的美中竞争做出了三点建议：
Henry Paulson emphasizes that the United States and China continue to have the most important bilateral relationship in the world. But structural dynamics of power will ensure that US-China relations are fraught for the foreseeable future. From now on, this relationship is going to be competitive in every domain – technological, economic, financial, military, and ideological. And our nations will also compete for influence in third countries, from the major OECD economies to the emerging economies of the Global South. And it comprises the new context of global geopolitics—and of international economics. We urgently need a new framework to reflect the major changes occurring in China, the US, and the world. When Henry Paulson looks at this emerging US-China competition, he reaches three conclusions:
首先，为了最大限度地降低发生破坏性冲突的可能性，并在共同关心的领域取得进展，美国和中国必须决定如何以及在哪些领域竞争，如何避免冲突。尽可能健康的竞争，不进行不必要的对抗，符合两国的利益。
First, to minimize the likelihood of debilitating conflict and to make progress on areas of mutual interest, the US and China must decide how and where to compete and how to avoid conflict. If we don’t, the world will be a very dangerous place. So it is in each of our interests that competition be as healthy aspossible, without unnecessary confrontation.
其次，出于对国家安全的关切，美中两国将面临越来越大的脱钩压力。以技术为例，他认为这将是美中关系向前发展的核心挑战。两国都有必要封存*高科技，以维护国家安全。但如果走得太远，就会形成他所说的经济铁幕，使供应链脱钩，并在全球经济中建立不兼容的规则和标准，阻碍创新和经济增长。
*iGCU注：“封存”一词英文原文为“sequester”，应译为“隔绝”。
Second, our two nations will face increasing pressures to decouple, driven primarily by national security concerns. Take technology, for example—the area that he believes will be the core challenge in the US-China relationship moving forward. It is clear that each of our nations will, of necessity, sequester high technologies to protect our national security. But if this goes too far, it will create what's called an Economic Iron Curtain, one that decouples supply chains and erects incompatible rules and standards throughout the global economy, impeding innovation and economic growth.
第三，即便没有合作，至少要有一定的协调，否则有些问题根本就无法缓解和解决。我们应该把重点放在一些比较容易的问题上，以建立合作势头和相互信任，并在此基础上继续前进。
Third, there are problems that we simply cannot mitigate and solve without at least some coordination, if not cooperation. Instead, we should focus on some of the easier issues to develop momentum and trust, which we can build on moving forward.
重启美中合作的重点领域
谈到美中可以立即开展合作的领域，他表示，首先希望两国能够达成一致，大面积取消对学生和学者交流的签证限制，这能促进创新，也符合公众利益。
另一个合作领域是阻止新冠疫情。他建议，第一步是尽可能地协调疫苗的分配，需要确保所有国家都能得到足够数量的经批准的有效疫苗，否则全球经济复苏将减缓。
其次，两国应该争取在环境和气候方面取得进展。
Talking about areas where the United States and China can cooperate immediately, Henry Paulson hopes we can agree to halt the proliferation of visa restrictions on student and scholarly exchanges that can promote innovation in the public interest.
Another obvious area for cooperation should be on stopping the pandemic. One clear first step is to coordinate – to the degree possible –on vaccination distribution. It is necessary to ensure that all countries receive approved andeffective vaccinations in adequate quantities – otherwise, it will slow down theglobal economic recovery.
the United States and China should also aim for progress on the environment and climate.
美中气候合作前景
保尔森表示，很高兴美国重新加入了《巴黎协定》，而中国的目标是到2060年实现碳中和，但两国目前的行动都无法实现避免灾难所需的全球温控目标。如果美国和中国这两个世界上最大的排放国以互补的方式合作，改变气候轨迹将容易得多。
第一，美国和中国应共同努力，重新思考国际气候治理问题。需要有惩罚力度的治理结构，正视搭便车的问题，并为遏制排放创造激励措施。
第二，两国应推动取消环境商品和服务的关税。
第三，两国应该共同努力，在减少新兴市场包括“一带一路 ”国家的碳排放方面取得进展，并鼓励绿色发展的最佳实践和最高标准。这也是他创立的保尔森基金会与中方密切合作制定自愿性绿色投资原则的一个领域。
第四，两国都需要提供激励措施，引导私营部门的资本流向减少碳排放、支持绿色发展和重视自然的创新解决方案。
第五，两国应当联合投资那些有可能帮助我们避免最不利的气候结果、改变游戏规则的技术，哪怕这些技术在商业上没有效益。
第六，两国应该共同努力，在中国、美国和世界各地部署清洁技术。
Henry Paulson is pleased the US has rejoined the Paris Agreement, and that China has targeted carbon neutrality by 2060—but neither country is on track tomeeting the global temperature goals needed to avert disaster. And changing the climate trajectory will be much easier if the US and China—the world’s largest emitters—are working in complementary ways.
For one, the United States and China should work together to rethink international climate governance. Aggressive voluntary climate targets are necessary but insufficient to drive meaningful change. We instead need a structure with penalties—one that deals squarely with the problem of free-riding and creates incentives to curb emissions.
Second, the United States and China should push toward lifting tariffs on environmental goods and services.
Third, the United States and China should work together to make progress on reducing the carbon emissions in emerging markets, including in the Belt and Road countries, and encourage best practices and high standards for green development. This is an area where his Institute, the Paulson Institute, has worked closely with the Chinese on developing voluntary green investment principles.
Fourth, the United States and China each need to provide incentives to channel private sector capital into innovative solutions that reduce carbon emissions, supportgreen development and value nature.
Fifth, the United States and China should make joint investments in game-changing technologies that have the potential to help us avoid the most adverse climate outcomes, even if they are not commercially viable.
Sixth, the United States and China should work together to deploy clean technologies in China, the United States, and around the world.
更广泛的美中经济关系
如果两国关系不能取得进展，全球经济中最重要、增长最快、规模最大的领域将被切断贸易和投资的通道，这对美国、中国和世界都不利。为此，保尔森建议：
近期，两国应该全面落实第一阶段的贸易协定，并开始全面的双边谈判，重点解决市场扭曲问题，采取他所说的“定向对等” 战略。重点关注对等规则、市场准入和行动，但不是建立在机械和条件反射的基础上，而是考虑是否符合美国工人、农民和牧场主的利益。从中国的立场来看，也要符合中国人的利益。
另外，希望两国能够重新建立战略经济对话，以应对重大的长期宏观经济挑战，同时在更紧迫的问题上取得进展。
从长远来看，两国应该共同努力，更新和改进全球贸易体系，首先是改革世贸组织。
最后，美国应与主要经济盟友和中国合作，加强数字贸易、技术、知识产权、环境商品和服务的规则并使其现代化。
If the United States and China fail to make progress, some of the most important, fastest growing, and largest parts of the global economy will be cut off from trade and investment to the detriment of America, China, and the world. Henry Paulson suggests:
In the immediate term, the United States and China should fully implement the Phase I trade agreement, and begin comprehensive bilateral negotiations focused on addressing market distortions, with a strategy he calls “targeted reciprocity.” This is a focus on reciprocal rules, market access, and actions—not on a mechanical and reflexive basis, but in a way that makes sensefor American workers, farmers, and ranchers—and, from China’s standpoint, for Chinese.
Henry Paulson is also hopeful that the two countries can reestablish a Strategic Economic Dialogue to address major long term macroeconomic challenges, while making progress on the more immediate issues.
Over the longer term, the United States and China should work together to update and improve the global trading system, starting with fixing the WTO.
The US, working with its major economic allies and China, should strengthen and modernize rules for digital trade, technology, intellectual property, and environmental goods and services.
背景链接
此次论坛是北京大学中外人文交流研究基地第三次参与组织北京大学与中国公共外交协会共同主办的高级别会议，分别为：2020年7月9日，以“互相尊重，信任合作——把握中美关系的正确方向”为主题的中美智库媒体视频会议；2020年9月28日，以“后疫情时代的国际秩序和全球治理”为主题的第十八届蓝厅论坛；以及此次的“对话合作，管控分歧——推动中美关系重回正轨”蓝厅论坛。
北京大学中外人文交流研究基地是历次合作的主要承办方。基地是由教育部批准设立并由北京大学承办的集教学科研、政策咨询与人才培训为一体的中国特色新型智库。目前，基地是北大唯一一家教育部设立的人文交流综合智库，服务于人文交流“十大机制”，引领国内人文交流研究的高地，统筹、协调和推进我国中外人文交流事业的建设。2020年1月，经教育部审批同意，“北京大学中美人文交流研究基地”更名为“北京大学中外人文交流研究基地”（Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding，iGCU）。2020年12月，北京大学中外人文交流研究基地入选2020中国智库索引（CTTI）来源智库。2021年1月，北京大学中外人文交流研究基地上榜“2020亚洲大国（中国、印度、日本、韩国）百强智库榜单”（排名第76位，在上榜的中国智库中名列第17位）。
文章来源：保尔森基金会
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